Pacific Standard May-June 2013 Cover

The Formula for a Hollywood Blockbuster

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There is a relatively uninteresting story in The New York Times today. Or, at least, it's a story that's been told before. Long-standing people in an industry are getting annoyed by an outsider who's trying to change the way they do things with a scary new tool: statistics. It's seemingly happening everywhere, and that it's now happening in Hollywood—a place where "making money" is pretty high on the list of priorities—isn't all that surprising. This is how it works: A chain-smoking former statistics professor named Vinny Bruzzese—“the reigning mad scientist of Hollywood,” in ... Read More

The Formula

(ILLUSTRATION: MARK MCGINNIS)

On the evening of August 18, 2011, viewers of The Daily Show were treated to a droll but distressing lesson in statistics. “The United States is not a Third World country by any measure,” Jon Stewart told his audience, “except, perhaps, income inequality.” To Stewart’s left, a ranked list of countries flashed on the screen, topped by Sweden. Then, in a blur, the list scrolled down to its middle-bottom reaches. “We rank worse than the Ivory Coast, worse than Cameroon: 64th!” After a few moments trash-talking the nations just below us on the list (“In your face, Uruguay, ... Read More

Terrifying Dots.

the-pieta

This graphic, based on World Bank statistics, is supposed to illustrate a global trend toward fewer children and longer life spans between 1960 and 2010. Which it does. What it also demonstrates, however, is the impact of some of humanity's most dramatic failures. When you follow the link, you'll see a chart. Each circle on the chart represents a country, with the size of the circle representing the size of the population. When you press "play," the mass of dots and circles -- the world's population, in aggregate -- moves together toward the lower right of the graph -- representing ... Read More

When Seeking US Political Asylum, Apply in Bhutan

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With Olympic athletes trying to get in to the UK, and Julian Assange trying to slip out, one might ask "how hard is it to get political asylum these days?" US and EU immigration statistics suggest several hundred thousand people receive visas based on political considerations each year. Here are the most recent numbers for the European Union, where France gets the most applications for asylum status most years. According to the EU's number crunching service, Eurostat, just over a quarter million people received visas to live in the common market's countries last year, with the largest ... Read More

Understanding Popular Uses of Percentages

Four New Jersey women in March accused the Campbell Soup Company of misleading customers with claims of lower sodium levels in its "25% Less Sodium Tomato Soup." Whether the soup has more or less sodium than regular versions is not for me to investigate. I want to focus on the "25% less" phrase — a type of claim we see regularly in ads and new product labels — and in the process provide some numerical literacy skills to our arsenal of skeptical thinking tools. In an age when quantitative thinking is at a premium and "innumeracy," as cognitive scientist Douglas R. Hofstadter termed it, ... Read More

We Are Accused of Over-cheerfulness

Whoever told you to mail me a free copy of Miller-McCune certainly had their insider information right. I've spent most of the day reading almost all the great articles. I love your compassion, optimism, realism, worldwide perspective and data-based and solution-based approach. I intend to subscribe tomorrow. I do have a disappointment, however, and I think I understand your reasoning. You do not wish to emphasize the dangers of population growth because it does not lead to any cheerful solutions. Colleen Shaddox points out ("Simply Rwandan," March-April) that Rwanda, the size of ... Read More

Oscar Predictions Golden

Pardoe, an associate professor of Decision Sciences at the University of Oregon, correctly predicted the top four winners of the 2008 Academy Awards using his mathematical models. As we reported Feb. 2, Pardoe calculated the likely winners were Slumdog Millionaire for Best Picture, Danny Boyle for Best Director, Sean Penn for Best Actor and Kate Winslet for Best Actress. This year’s perfect score will increase his long-term average, which was at 70 percent for Best Picture winners and 77 percent for Best Actor and Actress. Last year, Pardoe was three for four, missing only the Best ... Read More