Pacific Standard May-June 2013 Cover

The Formula for a Hollywood Blockbuster

hollywood

There is a relatively uninteresting story in The New York Times today. Or, at least, it's a story that's been told before. Long-standing people in an industry are getting annoyed by an outsider who's trying to change the way they do things with a scary new tool: statistics. It's seemingly happening everywhere, and that it's now happening in Hollywood—a place where "making money" is pretty high on the list of priorities—isn't all that surprising. This is how it works: A chain-smoking former statistics professor named Vinny Bruzzese—“the reigning mad scientist of Hollywood,” in ... Read More

Happy Anniversary, Dude: The Big Lebowski Turns 15

Wednesday marks the 15th anniversary of the release of The Big Lebowski, Joel and Ethan Cohen’s brilliant, semi-absurdist comedy about a slacker in early-1990s Los Angeles (Jeff Bridges, in one of his most memorable characterizations). There has been a lot of scholarly analysis picking apart this intricate, often-puzzling film, much of which we summarized here. But in his anniversary-timed appreciation in New York magazine, Josh Gondelman points out a telling detail that had, up until now, escaped our notice: A commonly cited but still unbelievable bit of Lebowski trivia is that the Dude ... Read More

About Those Oscar Predictions…

The Oscar ceremonies proved to be a rough night for both Seth McFarlane (whose performance as host was widely panned) and Iain Pardoe, the statistician with a superb track record predicting winners of the annual film industry awards. Pardoe only got two of the top four categories correct: Best Actor (Daniel Day-Lewis) and Best Actress (Jennifer Lawrence). His predicted Best Picture winner, Lincoln, lost to Argo. And rather than Steven Spielberg taking the Best Director prize, it went to Ang Lee for Life of Pi. The New York Times' Nate Silver did somewhat better, getting four out of six ... Read More

Stats Guru Predicts Oscar Wins for ‘Lincoln’, Spielberg

Daniel Day-Lewis in 'Lincoln'

Are you going with the conventional wisdom that Argo has a lock on a Best Picture Academy Award? If so, you might want to think twice before filling out that Oscar pool. Iain Pardoe is leaning in another direction. Pardoe, who has a Ph.D. in statistics, is an independent statistical consultant and mathematics/statistics instructor based in British Columbia. In the mid-2000s, working with psychologist and pop cultural scholar Dean Keith Simonton, he came up with an Oscars prediction model. Restricting his predictions to the four top categories, he has been remarkably successful, getting ... Read More

Why We Should Drop the ‘Mad Max’ Metaphors

A rare still from 'Mad Max: Fury Road,' with Tom Hardy in the role of Max Rockatansky

Here’s a drinking game: Sit down with some friends and talk about modern life and fossil fuels—supply, demand, embargoes, carbon, cars, batteries, whatever—and see how long it takes for someone to mention Mad Max. Ever since 1979, when an Australian ER doctor named George Miller and his friend James McCausland released a bootstrapped film about a bunch of gnarly drifters driving around looking for gasoline after the apocalypse, Mad Max has become the cultural reference point for fossil fuel depletion and the dystopia that ensues when “people don’t believe in heroes anymore.” ... Read More

How True is Zero Dark Thirty? A Former Operative Weighs In

ZERO-articleLarge

When Pacific Standard called me to ask if I would write about Zero Dark Thirty, I still had not decided whether I wanted to see it. I was leaning toward no. People who work in intelligence don't generally see movies about it. You can enjoy them only once you've been out of the game for a while, and then only if you don’t take it too seriously. I watch Homeland. It’s fun, because it’s a fantasy. Zero Dark Thirty occupied an odd space. It’s not ridiculous enough to allow complete suspension of disbelief. I get that Hollywood needs to sell tickets, but it’s not accurate enough to ... Read More

The Sound Effects of Silence: SFX Before There Were Talkies

Illustration from the September 1919 issue of Popular Science magazine

The term "silent movie era" is rather misleading. From the invention of the cinema in the late 1890s until the adoption of the "talkies" in the late 1920s, motion pictures may have lacked the sound experience we enjoy today but the theaters were far from silent. Despite a long list of failed experiments, most films of this era didn't include synchronized sound. However, auditory elements were recognized very early on as an important tool for influencing the emotions that audiences felt during a movie. Theaters in large U.S. cities would employ enormous orchestras with as many as a ... Read More

The Wizard of Oz in One Sentence

It may or may not be "the best film synopsis ever," as many have dubbed it, but Rick Polito's one-sentence summation of The Wizard of Oz, which he wrote in 1998, has become an unlikely internet sensation in recent days. It reads, in its entirety: "Transported to a surreal landscape, a young girl kills the first person she meets, and then teams up with three strangers to kill again." Nothing inaccurate there, but it rather misses the spirit of the film--intentionally, of course, and with considerable wit. I was curious to get the reaction of scholar Alissa Burger, who recently wrote a ... Read More

James Bond and ‘Skyfall’: Same As It Ever Was

Daniel Craig

(The following story may give away plot details that sensitive visitors would rather read about after they've seen the movie. -Ed.) "Every generation needs another James Bond," says director Sam Mendes, addressing a roomful of journalists the day before the newest 007 film, “Skyfall,” hit American theaters today. And indeed, Daniel Craig as our diminished era's favorite secret agent is as close to a real human being as we've seen: a pint-sized 40-something who bleeds easily. But the key to Bond's enduring popularity (the brand has produced 23 movies over half a century, more than the ... Read More

The Least Interesting Man in the World

Bond

IN THE EARLY 1950s, Ian Fleming, an Englishman living in Jamaica, was working on a spy novel and, as he told The New Yorker a decade later, he conceived the central figure as “an extremely dull, uninteresting man to whom things happened.” Searching for a suitably boring name, Fleming found it on his bookshelf, in the name of the ornithologist who authored the field guide Birds of the West Indies: James Bond. The inherent anonymity of those two syllables, and the blank slate they imply, hint at why the fictional British secret agent is at the center of the longest-running film franchise ... Read More