Pacific Standard May-June 2013 Cover

The Presidential Campaigns Didn’t Really Matter

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Political scientists argue Americans have all the information we need to make our voting decisions long before the campaign begins. So, we can—almost—call presidential elections while its still summertime. Why then do we have to endure long fall months of endless political rhetoric? Turns out, there is one simple reason. Most of us who are interested in politics are relieved. Whether or not we liked the outcome of the election, we are simply happy not to have to read and hear endless news about the two campaigns anymore. But we probably could have tuned out altogether while it was still ... Read More

Hurricane Sandy and the Presidential Election

An October surprise is usually something ginned up by a political campaign, but this year it seems that mother nature has one up her sleeve, in the form of Hurricane Sandy. What effect might this have on the election? Here are two data points that nature's oppo researchers might have considered. According to a historical analysis by the political scientists Christopher H Achen and Larry M Bartels, fluke natural disasters--droughts, flu epidemics, even shark attacks--tend to damage an incumbent by association: We find that voters regularly punish governments for acts of God, including ... Read More

Congress: If You Liked 2010-12, You’ll Love 2012-14

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Writing at Mischiefs of Faction, the University of Miami's Greg Koger makes a good case for this evening's debate being a prelude to...nothing. Using current forecasts from Intrade, Koger calculated that regardless of which man wins the Oval Office, the likely balance of power in Congress post-election will make it nearly impossible for either to get anything done. The crux of the argument is the low probability of a functional legislature post-election. Koger calculated an overwhelming probability that we'd continue with power split strongly enough to make it easy to gridlock the ... Read More

The Presidential Debate and the Mom Test

Last night a group of Pacific Standard staff members watched the presidential debate together. As news/politics junkies, we of course had lap tops open, smart phones at the ready, Twitter flowing and a steady stream of the cable TV talking heads giving pre- and post-debate analysis. By the end of the night we had heard the opinions of Ezra Klein, David Plouffe, Laura Ingraham, Steve Schmidt and everyone else who had a microphone or a Twitter account. With the flood of information we started wondering what people thought who had only watched the debate and didn't have any of the surrounding ... Read More

Social Sciences Fact Check: Romney’s Debate Dig at Spain

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Here's a quick fact-check on Mitt Romney's mid-debate comment last night, that the US doesn't want to go down the same economic road as faltering Spain: Specifically, he was talking about government expenditures equalling 42% of GNP, which the Republican candidate claimed to be similar in the European case and in the US under Obama. True? Yes. Not in the way Romney implied, however: that US economic policy was a copy of a failed policy in Spain. This chart by USgovernmentspending.com, which tracks a broad range of such statistics, shows current US government spending roughly ... Read More

A Genealogy of the “Makers/Takers” Theory of America

The Mitt Romney video you've probably heard about—the one where he talks about the 47 percent of Americans "who are dependent upon government, who believe that they are victims, who believe the government has a responsibility to care for them, who believe that they are entitled to health care, to food, to housing, to you-name-it"—has certainly not suffered a lack of commentary. But I can't resist linking to a particularly clear-headed intellectual history, written by the Roosevelt Institute's Mark Schmitt, of the broad view Romney is laying out here. The makers/takers theory went ... Read More

Bain, Solyndra, and Fannie Mae: Separated at Birth?

Naked Capitalism pointed out something yesterday that confounds conventional wisdom on what kind of capitalism private equity firms like Bain Capital really engage in: ... most members of the public do not know that close to half the investment capital in private equity funds is contributed directly by government entities. In this respect, private equity is little different than companies like Fannie, Freddie, and Solyndra that are regularly criticized in the media as recipients of government subsidies. “Government entities” here refers to public employee pension funds, or entities that ... Read More

Will Romney Regret Choosing Ryan?

Political scientists haven’t been as quick as journalists to jump into the debate over whether Mitt Romney was wise in selecting Rep. Paul Ryan as his running mate. But a few academics who blog have chimed in. John Sides of George Washington University is doubtful Romney made a good move, arguing on the Monkey Cage blog that while the Wisconsin congressman may indeed stoke the enthusiasm of hard-core conservatives, that’s not the dynamic Romney needs. He writes: “Conservative Republicans are more enthusiastic, not less enthusiastic, than other Republicans.  If Romney wants to ... Read More

Sorry Romney: Mediterranean Climate Aside, California Ain’t Greece

Yesterday in Iowa, Mitt Romney made a little joke at the Golden State's expense. "Entrepreneurs and business people around the world and here at home think that at some point America is going to become like Greece or like Spain or Italy—or like California," he said. Then he added, "just kidding about that one." Then he added, "in some ways." So, we get it; California's a little bit of a mess right now. And red states love to nyuk about blue states, and vice versa. But in case you want a multi-dimensional, quantitatively rich, five-chart assessment of Romney's poorly delivered ... Read More

Dick Morris is Lying, Part Infinity Plus One

Dick Morris, legendary self-promoter and political arsonist, is calling the presidency for Romney. As sure a sign as any that campaign silly season has commenced. ... Read More