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MLB Prediction: Cardinals to Lead NL in Wins

• March 28, 2012 • 12:23 PM

Despite losing manager Tony La Russa and all-star Albert Pujols, mathematician Bruce Bukiet predicts that the St. Louis Cardinals will lead the National League in victories.

Another Cardinals-Rangers World Series? It’s entirely possible, according to mathematician Bruce Bukiet.

St. Louis fans may not have particularly high hopes for the 2012 Major League Baseball season, given the fact they’ve lost manager Tony La Russa to retirement and all-star Albert Pujols to free agency. But they have reasons for optimism, according to Bukiet, who has just announced his projections for the 2012 season.

Bukiet’s model suggests the Cardinals should win 94 games — the most in the National League. He further predicts the Philadelphia Phillies and Arizona Diamondbacks will repeat as champions of the NL East and West, respectively, with the Phillies winning 92 games and the Diamondbacks 88.

For the first time this year, each league will have two Wild Card teams make it into the playoffs. Bukiet predicts that, in the National League, they will be the Atlanta Braves (with 90 projected wins) and Cincinnati Reds (with 87).

In the American League, he also predicts that last year’s division champions will repeat. The New York Yankees will win the East with 97 wins, the Texas Rangers the West with 97 wins, and the Detroit Tigers the Central with 96 wins. The Wild Card teams should be the Los Angeles Angels and Boston Red Sox, each of which is predicted to win 93 games.

The predictions are based on a MLB predictions contest for both 2010 and 2011.

For the 2011 season, he correctly predicted wins by the Phillies in the NL East, Tigers in the AL Central and Rangers in the AL West. In addition, he gave the Yankees and Red Sox an equal chance of winning the AL East; the Yankees came out on top. His only big miss was in the NL West: He predicted the Arizona Diamondbacks to come in last, when in fact they won the division.

Bukiet can’t be accused of favoritism: He predicts the New York Mets, the team he roots for, will finish last in their division, with 72 wins. He predicts the Minnesota Twins will have the worst record, winning only 64 games.

Tom Jacobs
Staff writer Tom Jacobs is a veteran journalist with more than 20 years experience at daily newspapers. He has served as a staff writer for The Los Angeles Daily News and the Santa Barbara News-Press. His work has also appeared in The Los Angeles Times, Chicago Tribune, and Ventura County Star.

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